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听力文稿 ( Transcript )
CNN's Andrew Stevens asks Edgar Chuan of Descartes Investment Management what the future holds for the Asian markets
No, this is why everybody has been anticipated being his when Gamepad came out as a report almost two years ago talked about BRIC, its bureau-speaker of Brazil, Russia, India and China. And this four-country, because given the, I mean, the people and education level, and economic growth, of this four-country, definitely, you know, this four-market, everyone has anticipated them to performing well.
Ok, on that basis, then 2008 foresee pretty much more of the same.
Yes, I would say 2008 is gonna to be pretty much the same and I think if you what we would talk Asia’s, I think maybe Vietnam has stand very good chance to be performing very well, that’s well.
Just looking at Vietnam, that is a 28 percent compared with, say India 30 percent to 40 percent, to Shanghai nearly 85 percent, so Vietnam’s underperforming at the moment. So why do you like it in 2008?
Vietnam is underperforming is because of the width and the depth of the market, because right now the entire, you know, stock exchange market capitalization is only about 20 billion dollars, and given that they are still in a very primitive stage and there's a lot of room for growth. So once, you know, you’re seeing more of the state-owned enterprises as well as the private. I’ll say privately owned company go on to be listed in Vietnam, you’ll be seeing a very different kind of market, also they’re trying, the Vietnam government is trying to improve the infrastructure of the both exchanges in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh city.
Looking at shanghai and India, the two best performing markets in 2007, it was talked this year, a lot of talk that certainly Shanghai is overheating, it was a bubble foaming, to a less degree, India is as well getting too hot, but you’re saying it’s still gonna be hot next year.
Yes, because when you look at the liquidity of the market, there’s still a lot of excess money or hot money is traveling around, you know globally, and when you look at the opportunists, this, take for example, the US sub-prime worries, and probably that is gonna lead to some economic declines, because the consumers are not gonna expand, and Japan isn't enough well. Where are you gonna put your money?
Right, and given that India and China, the fundamentals are still there, the economic growths are still very strong and everyone is predicting at least 10 percent of growth of GDP next year, and given that, you know the fundamental plus, there are a lot of money out of floating. So these two markets will be definitely performing very well next year.
Do you think looking at the economic fundamentals of the stock market, the people talk about the two markets are probably overvalued, they are probably in a bubble situation.
I would say it’s really wait too early to say the bubble is foaming, because given that you are in emergent market, you intend to give them a little higher in terms of PE or PB ratio, that is because they’re enjoying a better growth than the developed countries, it’s just like the same kind of banks that in China, that in China you get 4.5 over or times PB, price book, but you wouldn’t be able to get that in the states, because for Citibank, probably about 2.5 times price ratio. That’s about it.
Finally, how does a retailing investor play a market like Shanghai or India, particularly Shanghai, because it’s so close to outside investors?
You would be able to buy some ETF exchange trade fund, and you’re able to buy into some of the funds that China focuses, and I think that will be the best way for you to participate in the market, but again, you’ll always have to look at any of your investment on the 12 month horizon if you’re just thinking about, you know, just like trading an individual’s stock market, for sometimes that is not gonna get you the return you’re hoping for.
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